Price Drop Doesn't Faze Natural Gas Companies

March 05, 2010

Not even dropping prices can stop the oil and gas industry from forging ahead with drilling. Baker Hughes Inc. reports that 12 more rigs in the U.S. went to work in drilling for natural gas increasing the number to 905 rigs.

At the end of February, natural gas prices went down by 14% since the start of this year at below $5 per million British thermal units (BTUs). This amount is not sustainable even for successful shale plays Gas companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp, EOG Resources Inc. and Southwestern Energy Co. all took a hit on profits. Furthermore, the producers see more squeezing on profits with service providers increasing prices because of a greater demand for drilling rigs.

In the past, when the price of natural gas dropped, oilfield drilling and production also went down. This time natural gas companies have increased drilling activity and spending on capital projects. How that plays out depends on how long the $5 per million BTUs sticks.

Not all is bleak. The cold winter drove up gas demand to reduce the surplus of natural gas. The large surplus caused the prices to drop. As of this week, gas inventory is almost 4 percent below last year's levels. Also, with unemployment lower than the original forecast for February, the oil and gas industry is optimistic it will fuel gas demand.

In a Forbes interview, Advisors Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist Matt Lloyd says, "We are bullishly biased with natural gas for the long term. As we see the demand for oil rise in the economic recovery, alternative uses for natural gas will increase. Though currently it may be a value play, we can see this transform itself into a momentum play in 2011. We would not be surprised to see a modest increase in price by the end, say 15% or roughly 5.50 level."

Muhlenkamp and Company Founder Ron Muhlenkamp says, "Don't bet on the price of natural gas; bet on the companies that are able to produce a high volume of it."

R.W. Roge and Co. CEO Ron Roge believes natural gas has longer-term value and that natural gas will replace oil's market share in the U.S.